图书简介

Preface; Introduction; Part I. Overview Paper: 1. Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions in decision making David E. Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky; Part II. Conceptions of Choice: 2. Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice James G. March; 3. Rationality as process and as product of thought Herbert A. Simon; 4. Normative theories of decision making under risk and under uncertainty P. C. Fishburn; 5. Risky choice revisited David E. Bell, and Howard Raiffa; 6. Behavioral decision theory: processes of judgment and choice Hillel J. Einhorn, and Robin M. Hogarth; 7. Reply to commentaries Hillel J. Einhorn, and Robin M. Hogarth; 8. Response mode, framing, and information-processing effects in risk assessment Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichetenstein; 9. Rational choice and the framing of decisions Amos Tversky, and Daniel Kahneman; 10. Savage revisited Glenn Shafer; Part III. Beliefs and Judgments about Uncertainties: 11. Languages and decisions for probability judgment Glenn Shafer, and Amos Tversky; 12. Updating subjective probability Persi Diaconis, and Sandy L. Zabell; 13. Probability, evidence, and judgment A. P. Dempster; 14. The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems Geoffrey T. Fong, David H. Krantz, and Richard E. Nisbett; Part IV. Values and Utilities: 15. The mind as a consuming organ T. C. Schelling; 16. Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty David E. Bell; 17. Marginal value and intrinsic risk aversion David E. Bell, and Howard Raiffa; 18. Knowing what you want: measuring labile values Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic, and Sarah Lichetenstein; 19. Sources of bias in assessment procedures for utility functions John C. Hershey, Howard C. Kunreuther, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker; 20. Simplicity in decision analysis: an example and a discussion Ward Edwards, Detlof von Winterfeldt, and David L. Moody; 21. Value-focused thinking and the study of values Ralph L. Keeney; Part V. Areas of Application: 22. Behaviour under uncertainty and its implications for policy Kenneth J. Arrow; 23. The relevance of quasi rationality in competitive markets Thomas Russell, and Richard Thaler; 24. How senior managers think Daniel J. Isenberg; 25. Problems in producing usable knowledge for implementing liberating alternatives Chris Argyris; 26. On the framing of medical decisions Barbara J. McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, and Amos Tversky; 27. Whether or not to administer amphotericin to an immunosuppressed patient with hematologic malignancy and undiagnosed fever Jonathan E. Gottlieb, and Stephen G. Pauker; 28. The effect of private attitudes on public policy: prenatal screening for neural tube defects as a prototype Stephen G. Pauker, Susan P. Pauker, and Barbar J. McNeil; 29. Discussion agenda for the session on medical decision making and minutes of a group discussion clinical decision making Milton C. Weinstein, (moderator), and Harvey V. Fineberg, Barbara J. McNeil, and Stephen G. Pauker (discussion rapporteur Robert J. Quinn).

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