Aims and approach In order to chart the way for long-tenn policies in the field of public health, the Dutch government needs to have the best possible insight into potential future trends and the problems to which these could give rise. It was with a view to compiling a number of long-range studies that the independent Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios was set up in 1983. In 1988 this body appointed a board of experts to sUivey the future of Chronic Diseases. Three chronic diseases have been selected: diabetes mellitus, CNSLD (chronic non-specific lung disease) and rheumatoid arthritis (a chronic disorder of the joints). In close consultation with this board, the study has been conducted by the Department of Epidemiology of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection in Bilthoven. This report contains the results of the research into CNSLD. The report on diabetes mellitus was published in March 1990, while that on rheumatoid arthritis followed shortly (1991). The series has been concluded with a fmal report (spring 1992), in which, among other things, the results of the three reports have been brought together with a view to arriving at an overall picture of chronic diseases. The research had two main objectives: 1.

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