The Climate Demon

图书简介

Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as ’prophecies of doom’ and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate ’doomism’, while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.

List of figures; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction; Part I. The Past: 1. Deducing weather: The dawn of computing; 2. Predicting weather: The butterfly and the tornado; 3. The greenhouse effect: Goldilocks and the three planets; 4. Deducing climate: Smagorinsky’s laboratory; 5. Predicting climate: Butterflies in the greenhouse; 6. The ozone hole: Black swan at the polar dawn; 7. Global warming: From gown to town. Part II: The Present: 8. Occam’s razor: The reduction to simplicity; 9. Constraining climate: A conservative view of modeling; 10. Tuning climate: A comedy of compensating errors; 11. Occam’s beard: The emergence of complexity; 12. The Hansen paradox: The red Queen’s race of climate modeling; 13. The Rumsfeld matrix: Degrees of knowledge; 14. Lost in translation; 15. Taking climate models seriously, not literally. Part III. The Future: 16. Moore’s law: To exascale and beyond; 17. Machine learning: The climate imitation game; 18. Geoengineering: Reducing the fever; 19. Pascal’s wager: Hedging our climate bets; 20. Moonwalking into the future. Epilogue. Glossary. Selected Bibliography. References. Index. Endnotes.

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The Climate Demon 气候恶魔：气候预测的过去、现在和未来 地球科学史

The Climate Demon

气候恶魔：气候预测的过去、现在和未来
地球科学史