图书简介
This book is a collection of applications of analytic techniques to a number of popular sports including baseball, basketball, hockey, Jai Alai, NFL football and horseracing. We focus on both the statistics of the sporting events and betting strategies on the events. The subject is fascinating as there are many twists and subtle complicated decisions.Sports analytics applies mathematical and statistical methods to important questions in the structure and performance of sporting activities using the same basic methods and approaches as data analysts in other disciplines.Sports games and events are a fruitful area for study and to evaluate betting strategies as there is extensive data and mean reversion. With prices changing continuously, risk arbitrage bets can be made. Moreover, little errors, like a penalty to a player or an error in a call by a referee, can change the score of a game and corresponding betting prices. The collection and analysis of in-game data can inform players, coaches and staff on effective decision making during sporting events.Novel features of the book include: an analysis of who were the greatest baseball batters; analyses of the players most important to team success (and they are not necessarily the best players) in basketball, NFL football and hockey; a tutorial on risk arbitrage and its applications to NFL football and NBA basketball; a discussion of many ad hoc decision rules by coaches and players and what was really optimal; in the racing section we discuss breeding, the analysis of various bets like the Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6, a discussion and betting on the most important races and a visit to the Breeders’ Cup with Ed Thorp to demonstrate the place and show system in action.Key FeaturesUnique studies of sports analytics Unique betting strategies for people watching or participating in various Sports
Utility Theory and Preferences (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Fortune’s Formula: How the Pros Wager Using the Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion? (William T Ziemba); Rating Batters in Baseball (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); The Expected Utility of Performance: Dominant Batting Seasons in Baseball (Leonard C MacLean, William T Ziemba and Austin Krogan); Jai Alai Arbitrate Strategies (Daniel Lane and William T Ziemba); The Game Box Score in Basketball: Linking Statistics to Game Outcomes (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Risk Arbitrage in the 2021 NBA Championship (William T Ziemba); Winning Hockey: Team and Player Impact in the NHL (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); NFL Analytics I (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); NFL Analytics II (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Stop Shy of the First Down (Peter Cotton); Efficiency in NFL Betting Markets (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); National Football League: 2018–2019 (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Review of the NFL 2019/20 Season, Playoffs and Superbowl (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); The COVID-19 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl, 2020–2021 (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Team Composition: Are the Best Players on the Best Teams? (Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba); Primer on Dosage and the 2012 Triple Crown (William T Ziemba); An Application of Expert Information to Win Betting on the Kentucky Derby, 1981–2005 (Roderick S Bain, Donald B Hausch, and William T Ziemba); Stochastic Programming and Optimization in Horserace Betting (William T Ziemba); A Walk into Greatness: June 2017 Visits to Tesio’s Horse Stables and the Sassicaia Winery (William T Ziemba); Horse Ownership: The Example of Honor Code (William T Ziemba); The Pick 6 and the Rainbow Pick 6 (William T Ziemba); A Pick 6 Tale (William T Ziemba); The Triple Crown and Major US Three Year Old Races, 2019 (William T Ziemba); The Pegasus World Cup III: Accelerate vs. City of Light (William T Ziemba); The Big Money Older Horse Races: Pegasus, Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup in 2020 (William T Ziemba); The COVID-19 Triple Crown, 2020 (William T Ziemba); Dr Z’s Place
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