图书简介
Economic Analysis of Industrial Projects, Third Edition, provides the best possible methods for applying economic analysis theory to practice.
PART ONE: Basic Concepts; 1. The Firm Economic Exchanges and Objectives; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Economic ExchangeAThe Input-Output Basis of the Firm; 1.3 Functions of the Firm: Financing, Investing, Producing; 1.4 Objectives of the Firm; 1.5 Sources and Uses of Funds; 1.6 Summary; References; Problems; 2. Interest, Interest Factors, and Equivalence; 2.1 What is Interest?; --2.1.1 Perfect capital market assumptions; --2.1.2 The consumption basis of single-period exchange; --2.1.3 Multi-period exchange; --2.1.4 Fundamental interest equation; --2.1.5 The equilibrium market price concept of interest rates; 2.2 Notation and Cash Flow Diagrams; 2.3 Tabulated Compound Interest Factors; --2.3.1 Factors relating P and F; --2.3.2 Factors relating A and F; --2.3.3 Factors relating P and A; --2.3.4 Arithmetic gradient conversion factors; 2.4 Examples of Time Value of Money Calculations; 2.5 Geometric Gradients; 2.6 Nominal and Effective Interest Rates; 2.7 Continuous Interest Factors; 2.8 Extended Engineering Economy Factors and Spreadsheets and Calculators; --2.8.1 Advantages of extended engineering economy factors; --2.8.2 Notation for extended engineering economy factors; --2.8.3 Spreadsheet annuity functions; --2.8.4 Time value of money (TVM) calculators; 2.9 Spreadsheets and Cash Flow Tables; --2.9.1 Advantages of spreadsheets for economic analysis; --2.9.2 Effective and efficient spreadsheet construction; 2.10 Economic Interpretation of Equivalent Annual Amount; 2.11 Summary; References; Problems; 3. Estimating Costs and Benefits-Lead Coauthor Heather Nachtmann; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Cash Flow Estimates; 3.3 Life Cycle Estimation; 3.4 Classification of Estimates; 3.5 Estimation Data; 3.6 Basic Estimation Techniques-Indexes and Per Unit; --3.6.1 Indexes; --3.6.2 Unit Technique; 3.7 Factor Technique; 3.8 Cost Estimation Relationships; --3.8.1 Development Process; --3.8.2 Capacity Functions; --3.8.3 Learning Curves; 3.9 Growth Curves; 3.10 Estimating Product Costs; --3.10.1 Direct costs; --3.10.2 Indirect costs; 3.11 Sensitivity Analysis; 3.12 Summary; References; Problems; 4. Depreciation: Techniques and Strategies; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Depreciation Strategies; 4.3 Definitions; --4.3.1 Depreciable property; --4.3.2 Basis of property; --4.3.3 Recovery period; --4.3.4 Salvage value; --4.3.5 Symbols and notation; 4.4 Basis and Book Value Determination; --4.4.1 Definition of initial basis and book value; --4.4.2 Special first-year write-offs; --4.4.3 Like-for-like replacement ; 4.5 Methods of Depreciation; --4.5.1 Introduction; --4.5.2 The straight-line method; --4.5.3 The declining balance method; --4.5.4 The sum-of-the-years? digits (SOYD) method; --4.5.5 Switching; --4.5.6 Units of production; --4.5.7 Reasons for accelerated depreciation; --4.5.8 Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS); --4.5.9 Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act; --4.5.10 Comparing book values with different depreciation methods; 4.6 The Present Value of the Cash Flow Due to Depreciation; --4.6.1 Straight-line method; --4.6.2 Declining balance method; --4.6.3 Sum-of-years? digits method; --4.6.4 Modified accelerated cost recovery system; 4.7 Simple Depreciation Strategies; --4.7.1 Accelerated depreciation is better; --4.7.2 Declining balance method versus the straight-line method; --4.7.3 The declining balance method versus the sum-of-years? digits method; 4.8 Complications Involving Depreciation Strategies; 4.9 Summary of Conclusions: Depreciation; 4.10 Depletion of Resources; --4.10.1 Entitlement to depletion; --4.10.2 Methods for computing depletion deductions; --4.10.3 The depletion deduction; --4.10.4 Typical percentage depletion rates; 4.11 Amortization of Prepaid Expenses and Intangible Property; References; Problems; 5. Corporate Tax Considerations; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Ordinary Income Tax Liability; 5.3 Federal Income Tax Rates; --5.3.1 Investment tax credit; 5.4 Generalized Cash Flows from Operations; 5.5 Tax Liability When Selling Fixed Assets; --5.5.1 What are Section 1231 assets?; --5.5.2 Tax treatment of 1231 assets; 5.6 Typical Calculations for After-Tax Cash Flows; 5.7 After-Tax Replacement Analysis; 5.8 Value-added Tax; References; Problems; 6. The Financing Function; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Costs of Capital for Specific Financing Sources; 6.3 Cost of Debt Capital; --6.3.1 Short-term capital costs; --6.3.2 Capital costs for bonds; 6.4 Cost of Preferred Stock; 6.5 Cost of Equity Capital (Common Stock); --6.5.1 Dividend valuation model; --6.5.2 The Gordon-Shapiro growth model; --6.5.3 The Solomon growth model; --6.5.4 Note on book value of stock; --6.5.5 Capital asset pricing model (CAPM); --6.5.6 Cost of retained earnings; --6.5.7 Treasury stock; 6.6 Weighted Average Cost of Capital; 6.7 Marginal Cost of Capital; --6.7.1 Market values imply a marginal cost approach; --6.7.2 Marginal cost-marginal revenue approach; --6.7.3 A discounted cash flow approach; --6.7.4 Mathematical approach to marginal cost of capital; 6.8 Numerical Example of the Marginal Weighted Average Cost of Capital; --6.8.1 Calculation of the present weighted average cost of capital; --6.8.2 The future weighted average cost of capital after provision for new capital; --6.8.3 The marginal cost of capital; 6.9 MARR and Risk; 6.10 WACC and the Pecking Order Model; 6.11 Summary; References; Problems; PART TWO: Deterministic Investment Analysis; 7. Economic Measures; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Assumptions for Unconstrained Selection; 7.3 Some Measures of Investment Worth (Acceptance Criteria); 7.4 The Payback Period; --7.4.1 Payback rate of return; --7.4.2 Discounted payback; 7.5 Criteria Using Discounted Cash Flows; 7.6 The Net Present Value Criterion; --7.6.1 Production-consumption opportunities of the firm; --7.6.2 The present value criterion for project selection; --7.6.3 Multi-period analysis; --7.6.4 Characteristics of net present value; 7.7 The Benefit-Cost Ratio Criteria; 7.8 Internal Rate of Return; --7.8.1 Defining the internal rate of return; --7.8.2 The fundamental meaning of internal rate of return; --7.8.3 Conventional and nonconventional investments (and loans); --7.8.4 Conventional investments and internal rate of return; 7.9 Nonconventional Investment; --7.9.1 Nonconventional investment defined; --7.9.2 Conventional, pure investments; --7.9.3 Analyzing nonconventional investments; --7.9.4 Numerical examples; 7.10 Roots for the PW Equation; --7.10.1 Using the root space for P, A, and F; --7.10.2 Defining the root space for P, A, and F; --7.10.3 Practical implications of the root space for P, A, and F; 7.11 Internal Rate of Return and the Lorie-Savage Problem; --7.11.1 Multiple positive roots for rate of return; --7.11.2 Return on invested capital; --7.11.3 Present worth and the Lorie-Savage problem; 7.12 Subscription/Membership Problem; 7.13 Summary; References; Problems; 8. Replacement Analysis; 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 Infinite Horizon Stationary Replacement Policies; --8.2.1 Stationary costs (no technological change); --8.2.2 Technological change and stationary results; 8.3 Non-Stationary Replacement Policies; --8.3.1 Age-based state space approach; --8.3.2 Length of service state space approach; --8.3.3 Applying dynamic programming to an infinite horizon problem; --8.3.4 Solving with linear programming; 8.4 After-Tax Replacement Analysis; 8.5 Parallel Replacement Analysis; 8.6 Summary and Further Topics; References; Problems; 9. Methods of Selection Among Multiple Projects; 9.1 Introduction; 9.2 Project Dependence; 9.3 Capital Rationing; 9.4 Comparison Methodologies; 9.5 The Reinvestment Rate Problem; 9.6 The Reinvestment Assumption Underlying Net Present Value; 9.7 The Reinvestment Assumption Underlying the Internal Rate of Return: Fisher?s Intersection; 9.8 Incremental Rates of Return; --9.8.1 Incremental rate of return applied to the constrained project selection problem; --9.8.2 Inclusion of constraints; 9.9 The Weingartner Formulation; --9.9.1 Objective function; --9.9.2 Constraints; --9.9.3 The completed Weingartner model; --9.9.4 Constrained project selection using Solver; 9.10 Constrained Project Selection by Ranking on IRR; --9.10.1 The opportunity cost of foregone investments; --9.10.2 Perfect market assumptions; --9.10.3 Internally imposed budget constraint; --9.10.4 Contrasting IRR and WACC assumptions; --9.10.5 Summary of ranking on IRR; 9.11 Summary; References; Problems; PART THREE: Investment Analysis under Risk and Uncertainty; 10. Optimization in Project Selection (Extended Deterministic Formulations); 10.1 Introduction; 10.2 Invalidation of the Separation Theorem; 10.3 Alternative Models of the Selection Problem; --10.3.1 Weingartner?s horizon models; --10.3.2 The Bernhard generalized horizon model; --10.3.3 Notation; --10.3.4 Objective function; --10.3.5 Constraints; --10.3.6 Problems in the measurement of terminal wealth; --10.3.7 Additional restrictions; --10.3.8 The Kuhn-Tucker conditions; --10.3.9 Properties of; --10.3.10 Special cases; 10.4 Project Selection by Goal Programming Methods; --10.4.1 Goal programming format; --10.4.2 An example of formulating and solving a goal programming problem; --10.4.3 Project selection by goal programming; 10.5 Summary; Appendix 10.A Compilation of Project Selection Problem; References; Problems; 11. Utility Theory ; 11.1 Introduction; --11.1.1 Definitions of Probability; 11.2 Choices under Uncertainty: The St. Petersburg Paradox; 11.3 The Bernoulli Principle: Expected Utility; --11.3.1 The Bernoulli solution.; --11.3.2 Preference theory: the Neumann-Morgenstern hypothesis; --11.3.3 The axiomatic basis of expected utility; 11.4 Procuring a Neumann Morgenstern Utility Function; --11.4.1 The standard lottery method.; --11.4.2 Empirical determinations of utility functions; 11.5 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions; --11.5.1 Risk aversion as a function of wealth; --11.5.2 Other risk-avoiding utility functions; --11.5.3 Linear utility functions: Expected monetary value; --11.5.4 Complex utility functions: Risk seekers and insurance buyers; --11.5.5. Reconciling firm?s utility and behavior by employees and managers; 11.6 Summary; References; Problems; 12. Stochastic Cash Flows; 12.1 Introduction; 12.2 Single Risky ProjectsARandom Cash Flows; --12.2.1 Estimates of cash flows; --12.2.2 Expectation and variance of project net present value; --12.2.3 Autocorrelations among cash flows (same project); --12.2.4 Probability statements about net present value; 12.3 Multiple Risky Projects and Constraints; --12.3.1 Variance of cross-correlated cash flow streams; --12.3.2 The candidate set of projects; --12.3.3 Multiple project selection by maximizing expected net present value; 12.4 Accounting for Uncertain Future States; 12.5 Summary; References; Problems; 13, Decision Making Under Risk; 13.1 Introduction; 13.2 Decision Networks; 13.3 Decision Trees; 13.4 Sequential Decision Trees; 13.5 Decision Trees and Risk; --13.5.1 Stochastic decision trees; --13.5.2 Applications; 13.6 Expected Value of Perfect Information; 13.7 Simulation; 13.8 Summary; References; Problems; 14. Real Options Analysis; 14.1 Introduction; 14.2 Financial Options; 14.3 Real Options; --14.3.1 Historical development; --14.3.2 The real option model; --14.3.3 Interest rates; --14.3.4 Time; --14.3.5 Present value of future cash flows; 14.4 Real Option Volatility; --14.4.1 Actionable volatility; --14.4.2 Logarithmic cash flow method; --14.4.3 Stock proxy method; --14.4.4 Management estimates method.; --14.4.5 Logarithmic present value returns method (CA method); --14.4.6 Standard deviation of cash flows; --14.4.7 Internal Rate of Return; --14.4.8. Actionable volatility revisited; 14.5 Binomial Lattices; 14.6 The Deferral Option: Dementia Drug Example; --14.6.1 Definition and NPV calculation; --14.6.2 Volatility; --14.6.3 Black-Scholes results; --14.6.4 Binomial lattices; 14.7 The Deferral Option: Oil Well Example; --14.7.1 NPV.; --14.7.2 Delay option formulation; --14.7.3 Black-Scholes results; --14.7.4 Binomial lattices; 14.8 The Abandonment Option; 14.9 Compound Options; --14.9.1 Multi-stage options modeling; --14.9.2 Multi-stage option example; --14.9.3 Closed form solution; --14.9.4 Volatility issues in multi-stage modeling; 14.10 Current Issues with Real Options; 14.11 Summary; Appendix 14.A Derivation of the Black-Scholes Equation; References; Problems; 15. Capacity Expansion and Planning; 15.1 Introduction; 15.2 Expansion Analysis; --15.2.1 Dynamic deterministic evaluation; --15.2.2 Dynamic probabilistic evaluation; 15.3 Capacity Planning Strategies; --15.3.1 Maximizing market share strategy; --15.3.2 Maximizing utilization of capacity strategy; 15.4 Summary; References; Problems; 16. Project Selection Using Capital Asset Pricing Theory; 16.1 Introduction; 16.2 Portfolio Theory; --16.2.1 Securities and portfolios; --16.2.2 Mean and variance of a portfolio; --16.2.3 Dominance among securities and portfolios; --16.2.4 Efficient portfolios; --16.2.5 The risk in a portfolio; 16.3 Security Market Line and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); --16.3.1 Combinations of risky and riskless assets; --16.3.2 The security market line; --16.3.3 The capital asset pricing model (CAPM); 16.4 Firm?s Security Market Line and Project Acceptance; --16.4.1 Projects and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM); --16.4.2 Risk/return trade-offs and the firm?s security market line; 16.5 The Firm?s Portfolio of Projects; --16.5.1 Why do firms use project portfolios?; --16.5.2 Can security portfolio theory be extended to project portfolios?; --16.5.3 Reasonable inferences from security portfolio theory to project portfolios; --16.5.4 Can the capital asset pricing model for securities be extended to projects?; 16.6 Summary; References; Problems; Appendix; Index $ http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780195178746.do $ Economics of industrial organisation
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